Aberdeen Investments
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Currencies
The yen carry trade isn’t dying, it’s evolving
Sree Kochugovindan argues the yen carry trade will shrink gradually rather than collapse as Japanese rates rise, while slower repatriation of Japanese capital from overseas bonds could structurally tighten global borrowing conditions.
- Private Markets
APAC real estate market outlook Q4 2026
Aberdeen's Craig Wright and Jai Tyagi argue that higher inflation, bond yields and a 'no war, no peace' Middle East scenario have lowered near-term APAC real estate return forecasts. They favour residential, data centres and industrial/logistics while recommending highly selective office exposure.
- Fixed Income
Finding fixed income yield without reaching for risk
Jonathan Mondillo and Mark Munro argue bond investors should stay short-duration to capture high yields without added risk, favoring quality credit, select private credit and EM debt. They see a structurally higher-yield decade ahead and urge investors to shift out of cash into short-dated credit.
- Private Markets
North America real estate market outlook Q4 2026
Aberdeen's David Scott and Lance Eddis-Finbow expect US real estate returns to be driven by income rather than capital growth, with retail, healthcare and data centres outperforming while offices lag nationally. They see risks skewed to the downside amid one more Fed rate hike, elevated bond yields and global tensions, though coastal markets show resilience.
- Portfolio Construction
Is AI making diversification harder?
Invesco's Graham McCraw argues that AI has become a hidden common driver across global equities, emerging markets and small caps, undermining perceived diversification. He suggests listed infrastructure offers a differentiated way to access AI-driven growth without replicating the same return drivers.
- Fixed Income
Why ChatGPT might be affecting your bond fund
Robeco's Lewis Parkhouse argues that AI infrastructure spending is driving technology companies to issue debt at scale, adding to government bond supply and pushing yields higher. He suggests this favours careful credit selection and shorter-dated corporate bonds over simply chasing the highest yields.
- Private Markets
European real estate market outlook Q4 2026
Aberdeen's Craig Wright and Stephan Schanz forecast European real estate returns of 3.2% in year one and 6.6% annualised over three years, as ECB rate hikes and rising bond yields compress pricing spreads. Retail and industrial sectors lead performance while offices and parts of residential lag amid regulatory and political headwinds.
- Commodities
El Niño: another test for an already tight copper market
Rosa Leo argues that a forecast record-strength El Niño threatens an already tight copper market by disrupting mines in Chile, Peru, Zambia and the DRC. She contends this favours active, mine-level stock selection within resilient producers rather than broad commodity exposure.
- Equities
Is AI making diversification harder?
Aberdeen's Graham McCraw argues that AI has become a dominant, correlated driver across global equities, emerging markets and small caps, undermining perceived portfolio diversification. He suggests listed infrastructure offers differentiated exposure to AI-related growth without the same return drivers.