Apollo Global Management
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Equities
Equity Selloff Trims US Market Cap Gain to $5 Trillion YTD
Apollo's Chief Economist notes that despite recent market turbulence, the total market capitalisation of the US stock market remains up $5 trillion since the start of the year.
- Macro
The Low Unemployment Streak Nears a Record
Apollo's chief economist highlights that US unemployment has remained below 5% for 61 consecutive months through September 2026, nearing the record 64-month streak from 1965-1970.
- Fixed Income
Is the CCC Stress Spreading to Single-B?
Apollo's research argues that prolonged higher interest rates are eroding debt coverage for weak borrowers, with stress spreading from CCC-rated credit toward single-B issuers via refinancing pressure and CLO-driven technical contagion.
- Macro
Iran: Severe Stress Now, More Risk If Conflict Returns
Apollo's Chief Economist links Iran's roughly 90% inflation, a collapsing rial and near-total oil export losses since the conflict began into a single negative feedback loop. The analysis argues lost oil revenue is driving currency depreciation and import-driven inflation, compounding economic stress.
- Macro
10% Nominal GDP Growth Coming?
Apollo's chief economist argues that S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 40% YoY implies nominal GDP growth closer to 10%, pointing to upside risks for employment data and supporting a higher-for-longer rates outlook.
- Macro
How High Would the Fed Funds Rate Need to Rise to Bring Inflation Back to 2%?
Apollo's economic model implies the Fed would need to raise rates roughly 275bps to 6.75% by late 2027 to return CPI to 2%, with target inflation not achieved until mid-2027. This suggests the Fed may be further from its inflation goal than markets currently price in.
- Macro
Inflation Stopped Falling, Now It’s Rising
Apollo's chief economist notes core PCE inflation has held near 3% for three years and is rising again, explaining why markets are now pricing additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- Macro
The Economy Is Less K-Shaped than You Think
New Federal Reserve data analysed by Apollo's chief economist shows US consumer spending growth of roughly 4-5% year-on-year is similar across income groups, challenging the popular 'K-shaped economy' narrative. Household net worth has also risen across the income distribution since 2019, including about 80% growth for the bottom quintile.
- Fixed Income
The Search for Duration Leads to Credit
Apollo's chief economist notes 2026 Treasury issuance averages just 1.7 years while US corporate bonds average nearly 10 years, partly to fund long-duration infrastructure like data centers. Insurers and pension funds seeking duration will therefore turn increasingly to corporate credit markets.