BlackRock
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- Equities
AIs rising bill of expectations
BlackRock's Jean Boivin argues AI earnings scrutiny is intensifying as capex squeezes free cash flow, prompting a U.S. equity downgrade to neutral while keeping EM equities overweight on AI-buildout bottlenecks.
- Macro
The Mideast energy shocks next phase
BlackRock argues the Middle East energy shock is shifting from crude supply disruption to downstream refining and shipping bottlenecks, favouring selective energy and utilities exposure over broad market bets. It also expects another Fed hike but sees markets pricing in excessive further tightening.
- Fixed Income
French bonds: a lesson in selectivity
BlackRock argues the French government bond sell-off shows why investors must distinguish fiscal-risk-driven yield rises from broader rate resets, favouring selective sovereign and credit opportunities. The firm stays neutral euro-area bonds, overweight U.S. Treasuries and EM local debt, and neutral U.S. equities despite AI-driven volatility.
- Fixed Income
Upgrading U.S. Treasuries to lock in income
BlackRock Investment Institute upgrades U.S. Treasuries, favoring short-term bonds, as yields near 24-year highs offer attractive income, funding this by downgrading U.S. equities to neutral. The firm retains conviction in AI fundamentals and emerging market equities despite near-term volatility risks.
- Currencies
U.S. dollar: surprisingly resilient
BlackRock's Jean Boivin argues the dollar's rebound reflects fundamentals like rate differentials and capital flows rather than debasement fears, but sees little scope for a sustained rally. The firm maintains overweight positions in US and EM equities, favouring short-duration bonds over long Treasuries.
- Equities
China: up the value chain
BlackRock stays neutral on Chinese equities as advanced manufacturing gains mask uneven profitability, favoring AI hardware, while arguing bond markets may be overpricing further Fed tightening after yields hit multi-decade highs.
- Macro
The AI buildout meets the 5% world
BlackRock argues that a surging AI-driven financing boom and heavy government borrowing are intensifying competition for capital, keeping Treasury yields elevated even after the Fed's rate hike restored policy credibility. It stays pro-risk, overweight U.S. equities and AI, while favouring short-duration bonds and selective credit over the weakest borrowers.
- Emerging Markets
EM equities: back to overweight
BlackRock returns to an overweight on emerging market equities, citing strong earnings growth and cheap valuations relative to the US, alongside AI-scarcity exposure via Korea, Taiwan and Latin America. The firm stays pro-risk overall despite higher rates and downgrades short-term European government bonds to neutral.
- Fixed Income
Why Japan matters for U.S. bond market investors
Surging JGB yields and a weakening yen risk pulling Japanese capital home, threatening U.S. Treasury demand amid intensifying global competition for capital. BlackRock stays underweight JGBs and long Treasuries, favoring selectivity across risk assets.