Capital Group
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Macro
2026 midterms: How will the ‘blue wave’ affect markets?
Capital Group strategists including Matt Miller, Diana Wagner, Tom Hollenberg and Cheryl Frank argue Democrats' midterm sweep will constrain Trump's tariff and tax agenda but won't curb deficits, healthcare debates or AI-driven economic resilience.
- Fixed Income
From silicon to steel: The credit consequences of technological upheaval
Technological disruption—Chinese EV competition in autos and AI-driven data-centre spending by hyperscalers—is reshaping credit fundamentals unevenly across sectors. The piece argues bond investors must assess financing structures, issuance supply and valuations rather than assume technological winners make attractive credit investments.
- Fixed Income
AI financing: Bubble, breakthrough or the next fixed income supercycle?
PGIM's Sandro Lazzarini and Theo Pan compare AI-driven capital spending to past infrastructure cycles, finding hyperscaler cash flows currently limit reliance on debt. They argue credit risk varies widely across AI-related bond structures, making structural analysis essential over the next two to three years.
- Macro
After the 2026 midterms: How will the ‘blue wave’ affect markets?
Capital Group's Matt Miller and colleagues argue that the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterms will prolong political volatility, intensify scrutiny of healthcare policy, and leave large federal deficits unresolved. Tom Hollenberg favors longer-dated Treasuries given fiscal risks, while Cheryl Frank expects the US economy and AI investment trends to remain resilient.
- Portfolio Construction
Making the case for active at the core
The piece argues that rising benchmark concentration—the top ten S&P 500 stocks now near 40% of the index—undermines claims that passive investing offers neutral market exposure. It contends portfolios should combine passive efficiency with a benchmark-aware, genuinely active core rather than framing active versus passive as a binary choice.
- Pensions
Navigating private markets in defined contribution plans
Evolving US regulation and new semi-liquid fund structures are easing long-standing barriers to including private equity, credit and infrastructure in defined contribution plans, with target date funds offering a practical delivery vehicle. The piece argues glide-path design can balance private markets' diversification and return potential against participants' liquidity and fee considerations.
- Fixed Income
Five charts to consider if worried about rising rates
Rising bond yields in 2026 differ from 2022's shock, reflecting hawkish Fed repricing, AI-driven issuance and global yield moves rather than runaway inflation, the analysis argues. Elevated starting yields offer attractive forward returns and improved risk-reward for extending duration despite near-term volatility.
- Fixed Income
How bond investors can ride the debt wave
The asset manager argues that heavy Treasury and hyperscaler-driven AI debt issuance will keep yields elevated and compress relative value, favoring long-duration Treasuries at current levels and selective, flexible credit positioning. It recommends diversification across Treasuries, agency MBS and corporate credit with active duration management amid tight spreads.
- Fixed Income
Fixed income perspectives: Resilient growth, higher yields and evolving opportunities
The fixed income investment group argues resilient growth and contained inflation support duration exposure, structured credit and corporate bonds despite Q3 yield rises, viewing higher yields as creating attractive valuations.