GQG Partners
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Fixed Income
French Evolution
French government bond yields are rising relative to German Bunds as investors grow increasingly concerned about France's deteriorating public finances, with debt-to-GDP nearing 120% and no budget surplus in over 50 years. Political signals, including presidential front-runner Marine Le Pen's rare acknowledgment of fiscal problems, briefly eased market concerns but underlying structural issues persist.
- Equities
Always Evolving
GQG Partners' Rajiv Jain argues AI infrastructure demand has shifted from a normal cycle into a supercycle, citing rebounding GPU rental rates, data center bottlenecks and rising customer prepayments, prompting the firm to rebuild AI value-chain exposure.
- Macro
Yen and Now
Lundin Financial (unnamed author) argues that rising Bank of Japan rates and JGB yields threaten to unwind the decades-long yen carry trade, echoing August 2024's market shock. This could pressure richly valued growth stocks, Treasuries, and leveraged risk assets as Japanese capital returns home.
- Thematics
At a Safe Pace
The newsletter argues Anthropic's Dario Amodei undermines his own warnings of AI's existential risk by pursuing commercial deals like a Salesforce partnership rather than restraining deployment himself. It contrasts his call for government regulation with Nvidia's Jensen Huang's view that firms should simply withhold unsafe products.
- Macro
Stranger Things–Canada Edition
The newsletter argues that US-Canada trade relations are deteriorating amid tariff disputes over lumber, dairy and alcohol, raising costs and supply-chain uncertainty for North American businesses. It warns that if retaliation spreads to autos, energy or critical minerals, the fallout would become a continental rather than purely Canadian issue.
- Fixed Income
Raising the Stakes
Author argues US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's claim to be 'the house' overstates his control, as yen intervention and an expanded Treasury buyback failed to stop the 10-year yield from rising despite tripling to $6B against $40T in debt.
- Thematics
Bits About Bytes
IDC forecasts the global datasphere will reach roughly 221 zettabytes in 2026, potentially exceeding a yottabyte by 2033 as AI-driven data growth continues at nearly 25% annually. This trajectory implies surging demand for data centers, semiconductors, networking equipment, electricity and cooling infrastructure.
- Thematics
No Automation Required
Japan's robotics boom reflects real labor shortages from an aging population, yet the oversubscribed volunteer effort to pull Hirosaki Castle shows automation's investment case is more nuanced than simple labor substitution. As automation expands, distinctly human activities like heritage and community may grow more valued, not less.
- Thematics
Humans as a Service
The newsletter cautions against chasing viral humanoid-robot stocks like China's Unitree, arguing durable investment opportunity lies in supporting infrastructure—chips, sensors, motors, and industrial adopters—rather than the robots themselves.