Guggenheim Investments
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Macro
Deepening Worries Around A.I. Buildout Sends Tech Stocks Reeling
US equities fell for a third straight week as AI-sustainability worries overshadowed strong Q3 earnings beats, while the Fed held rates steady amid accelerating GDP growth and rising inflation, Guggenheim's Michael Schwager notes.
- Macro
Higher Oil and AI Worries Weigh on the Broader Market
Guggenheim's Michael Schwager reports major US indices were mixed last week amid AI spending concerns and Iran-related geopolitical risk, even as Q3 earnings beat expectations by a wide margin. He highlights an upcoming FOMC meeting, September PCE inflation data, and heavy earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon as key catalysts ahead.
- Macro
October Economic Outlook and Key Themes
The outlook projects above-2% US GDP growth driven by AI capex and resilient consumption, with core inflation easing only gradually, prompting two more Fed rate hikes under Chair Warsh. Sovereign yields are seen settling at a higher range, favoring selective credit, RMBS and CLOs over broad risk repricing.
- Fixed Income
Fourth Quarter 2026 Fixed-Income Sector Views
The asset manager's fourth-quarter fixed-income outlook favors high-carry defensive sectors like commercial ABS and non-Agency RMBS, up-in-quality corporate credit, and TIPS as yields stay elevated while spreads remain tight.
- Fixed Income
Portfolio Management Outlook: High Yields, High Quality
The report argues that near 20-year-high yields make fixed income attractive, but elevated tail risks warrant selectivity, favoring high-quality credit, defensive structured sectors, and TIPS. It expects the Fed to hike once more in December before holding steady amid resilient growth and sticky inflation.
- Macro
Macroeconomic Update: Resilient Growth, Stubborn Inflation
Guggenheim Investments forecasts continued U.S. growth above 2% driven by AI-related capital spending, but energy-driven inflation keeps core PCE near 3%, prompting one more Fed hike in 2026.
- Macro
Stocks Finish Mixed as Investors Digest Weak Payrolls and Higher Rates
Guggenheim's Michael Schwager reports U.S. equities slipped as the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high amid inflation and AI-driven debt issuance. A weak September jobs report sharply cut odds of an October Fed rate hike ahead of Q3 earnings season.
- Macro
Third Quarter 2026 Quarterly Macro Themes
A quarterly macro review argues inflation remains above target despite distorted measures, while AI has yet to boost productivity. After this year's sharp bond yield rise, fixed income entry points and structured credit now offer attractive compensation for risk.
- Macro
Stocks Gain as Oil Retreats
US equities rose on hopes for a phased US-Iran deal easing oil tensions, even as multiple Fed officials warned persistent supply shocks risk entrenching inflation. Guggenheim's Michael Schwager notes markets await September payrolls data amid robust PMI readings.