Payden & Rygel
The latest research and outlooks in the ProAllocate library
- Macro
Romania, Hungary, Poland & Czechia, EM Trip Notes | Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel's CEE trip finds Romania's new coalition easing risk but 2027 austerity unresolved, Hungary pursuing credible fiscal reform toward euro adoption, while Poland and Czechia face renewed inflation risks. It favors Hungarian bonds, trims Romania exposure, underweight Poland.
- Emerging Markets
October 2026 Monthly Commentary, Emerging Markets | Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel reviews October's mixed EM debt returns, with hard-currency credit outperforming local-currency bonds amid currency depreciation, while surprise elections in Brazil and Serbia and central bank divergence shaped sentiment. The firm maintains EM debt offers attractive strategic value given resilient fundamentals and contained inflation.
- Macro
Boomtown, USA
Strong Q3 GDP and accelerating private demand, driven by AI-related capex and resilient consumer spending, give the Federal Reserve room to focus on its inflation mandate rather than resume rate hikes. Credit markets stayed stable with light high-yield issuance, a record Microsoft bond deal, firm munis, and a modest equity pullback led by tech.
- Macro
Sour OATs
Despite similar debt-to-GDP ratios, France's weaker growth relative to its borrowing costs makes it fiscally more fragile than the U.S., pushing French OAT-German Bund spreads to their widest since 2011. A weekly roundup covers front-loaded corporate issuance, municipal inflows, mixed equity performance, and widening securitized spreads.
- Fixed Income
Shelter Shock, 2026-10-16 Week in Review | Payden & Rygel
September CPI data show shelter inflation reaccelerating to its fastest pace since late 2024, undermining recent disinflation narratives and suggesting it is premature to call a peak in bond yields. Fixed income and equity markets showed mixed performance, with high yield offering attractive entry points while mega-cap tech weakness dragged on equities.
- Macro
Real-Time Refresh: The Prospects and Problems of Real-Time Data Sources
The article argues that despite unprecedented volumes of real-time private-sector data on spending, payrolls and prices, these alternatives still underperform traditional government surveys like GDP, nonfarm payrolls and CPI. It concludes that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's push for better real-time economic signals faces structural, legal and methodological hurdles that make quick improvement unlikely.
- Emerging Markets
Argentina & Brazil, EM Trip Notes | Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel's trip to Argentina and Brazil finds Argentina's macro stabilising under Javier Milei despite election-driven volatility, while Brazil's fiscal deterioration under Lula contrasts with markets pricing a likely, more fiscally prudent Flávio Bolsonaro presidency.
- Emerging Markets
Andean Region, EM Trip Notes | Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel finds Colombia's new government inheriting a severe fiscal crisis, Ecuador defending IMF-backed gains against power shortages, and Peru's stronger fundamentals finally aided by institutional reforms and a copper boom. All three face organized crime and El Niño risks, shaping the firm's differentiated sovereign credit positioning across the region.
- Macro
Fool Me Thrice?, 2026-10-09 Week in Review | Payden & Rygel
Payden & Rygel argues persistent core PCE inflation near 3% will keep the Fed hiking three more times despite a cooling three-month average, while fixed income markets saw munis slump, high yield offer attractive yields, and IG supply surge.