Anthony Willis argues that the Democrats' sweeping midterm victory, alongside easing Iran tensions and a Bank of England rate hike, creates a backdrop where political gridlock should support markets despite AI-stock volatility. He notes markets have historically decoupled from political noise provided earnings growth and economic fundamentals remain solid.
6 NOVEMBER 2026
US midterm elections flipping Congress triggered a selloff in AI-linked and semiconductor stocks over datacenter growth concerns, while strong payrolls data lowered odds of a December Fed hike. MFS's Jamie Coleman reviews a week marked by falling oil prices, rising volatility, and global central bank action.
5 NOVEMBER 2026
El Niño's impact on emerging markets will be highly country-specific, depending on existing fiscal, food-inflation and hydropower vulnerabilities rather than the storm's overall meteorological strength. The piece argues investors should treat it as a dispersion trade across EM debt rather than a directional asset-class call.
Schroders reports global equities fell in October 2026 as AI valuation doubts triggered a tech sell-off and rotation into defensives, while government bonds rallied except for France amid fiscal stress and oil rose on Middle East tensions.
Romain Aumond and Mabrouk Chetouane argue that the Democrats' landslide 2026 midterm win curtails Trump's legislative power, likely producing gridlock rather than fiscal deterioration. They note markets have welcomed the shift to divided government, with equities, bond yields and the dollar reacting positively.
BlackRock's iShares reports global ETP inflows hit a record $393.1B in October 2026, led by equities ($281.9B) and record fixed income flows ($107B), while commodity buying cooled despite continued gold demand.
The article argues that despite recent Treasury yield volatility, elevated real and nominal US yields justify holding duration at neutral and favour strategic bond allocation. It flags slowing GDP growth, possible Fed hikes, and Iran-related oil risk as key forward drivers.
4 NOVEMBER 2026
A Democratic sweep in the US midterms strengthens Congress's hand on spending but leaves Trump's executive authority over trade, immigration and foreign policy largely intact. The bigger macro risk may be state-level Democratic governors curbing data-centre permits, threatening the AI capex build-out.
Apollo's Chief Economist links Iran's roughly 90% inflation, a collapsing rial and near-total oil export losses since the conflict began into a single negative feedback loop. The analysis argues lost oil revenue is driving currency depreciation and import-driven inflation, compounding economic stress.
